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Student housing in CEE: The next big thing?

A new report by Colliers International and international law firm CMS has revealed that Central and Eastern Europe may be facing a significant shortfall in student housing in the next 10 years. The firms’ third annual joint Real Estate report, ‘Student housing in CEE – the next big thing’ looks at the evolution of the student housing sector in the core CEE-6 [1] countries, and canvasses views from investors[2] on the relevance of CEE student housing as an asset class and their expectations for the future.

A lack of affordability, the availability of very cheap but low-quality private houses and state-owned dormitories, and tight university budgets have all stymied development of student accommodation in CEE. A key demographic shift marked by strong growth in international students is though shifting expectations, and perhaps affordability, towards international norms. But is the region equipped to cope with this potential influx?

 

Investor appetite for student accommodation growing

Over 32% of investors surveyed for the report are active in student accommodation in CEE or indicated that they intend to be. Poland was ranked as the most popular market for both existing investment activity and those considering investing in the future (50% of respondents), followed by Czech Republic (28%) and Hungary (14%). As the report reveals, supply in many regions is falling well short of forecasted demand.

According to the report, most CEE cities will suffer from a significant shortfall in student accommodation by 2028. Using a demand-supply model[3], matching a calculated assumption of the number of international students in the city[4] against the supply of beds, it was revealed that Warsaw will have the highest housing shortfall in 2028 (-8,399 bed deficit), followed by Budapest (-3,679), Krakow (-1,227) Prague (-1,795) and Bratislava (-298). Bucharest was the only city to have had come out with a surplus. In this scenario and counting one bed per bedroom unit, the implied value of stock equates to EUR 1.22bn.

 

Mark Robinson, CEE Research Specialist in Colliers International comments:

“Student activity and spending is not especially moving in line with an economic cycle. Thus, the end user demand is not correlated with that for sectors more tied to faster GDP growth, for example office or industrial. These characteristics are worthwhile for investors to consider right now, given that GDP growth estimates for the Eurozone (and other countries around the world) are being revised downwards.”

 


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Opportunity lies with developers in short to medium term

 

Over 87% of investors surveyed believe that there is a significant shortfall in the supply of CEE private purpose-build student accommodation (“PBSA”). When investors were asked about whether to build or buy PBSA products in CEE, a clear majority of respondents (74%) were prepared to develop the assets themselves rather than rely on buying ready product.

This trend is already evident across the region, with eight private student residences in development including Golub GetHouse’s LivinnX project, a modern student residence hall with 290 residential units in Krakow. Griffin Real Estate, who created Student Depot, the premier network of private rental dorms across Poznań, Łódź, Lublin and Wrocław, has also signaled its intention to invest in more projects in Kraków and Wrocław by 2021, increasing its number of beds to 2,700.

 

A renewal of student housing stock on the cards?

Students interviewed for a 2017 survey[5] expressed frustration about the low quality of housing stock across the region, with Romania receiving the highest levels of dissatisfaction when asked about housing cost, location, quality and commute. Poland also fared poorly. With international students as a proportion of the population growing at an average of 3.6% year-on-year across the region, the report suggests a renewal of student housing stock may be overdue in order to attract international as well as native students, the latter whose numbers have shrunk in recent years. Affordability is, as the study reveals, an issue particularly with local students. Over 20% of students surveyed[6] in 2017 across the CEE-6, except in the Czech Republic, suffered financial stress

 

Wojciech Koczara, CEE Head of Real Estate and Construction at CMS, comments:

“The present supply of PBSA in the core CEE-6 markets is currently limited to 20 assets. But with eight presently under construction across Warsaw, Krakow and Bucharest, development activity in the sector is growing – although arguably at a pace slower than needed, as investors begin to realise the sector’s potential.

Our report shows that as an asset class, PBSA is counter-cyclical in nature, a positive when considering the current political climate and sluggish economic growth forecast in Europe over the next 1-3 years. With steady investment yields of 5-7% across Europe and strong demand shown by international students for CEE assets, the potential for development is enormous – although affordability remains an issue.”

 


 

About Colliers International

Colliers International (NASDAQ, TSX: CIGI) is a leading global real estate services and investment management company. With operations in 68 countries, our 14,000 enterprising people work collaboratively to provide expert advice and services to maximize the value of property for real estate occupiers, owners and investors. For more than 20 years, our experienced leadership team, owning more than 40% of our equity, have delivered industry-leading investment returns for shareholders. In 2018, corporate revenues were $2.8 billion ($3.3 billion including affiliates), with more than $26 billion of assets under management.

 

Learn more about how we accelerate success at corporate.colliers.com, Twitter @Colliers or LinkedIn.

 

 

About CMS

Founded in 1999, CMS is a full-service top 10 international law firm, based on the number of lawyers (Am Law 2017 Global 100). With 70+ offices in 40+ countries across the world, employing over 4,500 lawyers, CMS has longstanding expertise both at advising in its local jurisdictions and across borders. CMS acts for a large number of Fortune 500 companies and the FT European 500 and for the majority of the DAX 30. Revenues totalled EUR 1.3bn in 2017.

CMS provides a wide range of expertise across 19 expert practice and sector areas, including Corporate/M&A, Energy, Funds, Lifesciences, TMC, Tax, Banking and Finance, Commercial, Competition & EU, Dispute Resolution, Employment & Pensions, Intellectual Property and Real Estate & Construction.

 

For more information, please visit cms.law

 

[1] CEE: In this report, we focus on the CEE-6 countries: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.
2 We conducted an online survey of 68 responding clients in early March 2019. Two thirds of respondents were located in the CEE region itself, with most of the remainder in Western Europe.

[3] Based on current student data and projections for international students at the rate of growth observed in Eurostat data between 2013 and 2016
[4] At a 20% adoption rate
[5] EuroStudent VI survey (2017)
[6] EuroStudent VI survey (2017)