We expect growth to slow to 3% in 2020, after growth in 2019 is anticipated to amount to 3.7%. Weaker external demand will likely weigh on export performance, while labor shortages will constrain job creation – thereby lowering private consumption and to a lesser extent investment. While available free fiscal space is significant, we expect to see only moderate fiscal stimulus in 2020. Outlook is likely to improve again in 2021, when stronger global growth should provide a fresh boost to exports and investment.
Author: Kristofor Pavlov, Chief Economist (UniCredit Bulbank)