On April 9, 2025 on a live appearance on Bulgarian National Television’s evening program “Oshte ot Denya”, Ivan Mihaylov, CEO of AmCham Bulgaria, analyzed the impact of the newly introduced U.S. tariffs on global trade and their broader economic implications. The conversation, led by host Poli Zlatareva, focused on the trade measures enacted by President Donald Trump’s administration, which now apply to over 70 countries worldwide, including EU member states.
Rising Tensions, Long-Term Effects
Mihaylov warned that the long-term consequences of the escalating trade war will soon become visible not only globally but also within the United States.
“The moment is approaching when American consumers—especially those who voted for Trump—will begin to feel the effect of his economic policy,” he said.
He emphasized that the return of aggressive protectionist measures marks a more intense phase of U.S. trade policy compared to previous years.
“Trump is triggering much more aggressive trade wars than during his first term,” Mihaylov noted. “Domestically, he is trying to reduce the national debt and implement other policies, but naturally, the tools he uses affect the entire world.”
Despite the rising tariffs, global trade has not come to a halt.
“Business continues to function—imports to the U.S. still occur, and exports from Europe as well,” he stated. However, he warned that the real challenge lies in how this price increase will ultimately reach the end consumer. “Companies may absorb some of the tariffs in an attempt to remain competitive and maintain market share, even at the cost of lower profits,” said Mihaylov. “But this can’t go on indefinitely.”
Bulgaria Holds Strong Amid Global Uncertainty
In contrast to the turbulence on global markets, Mihaylov reassured that Bulgaria is in a stable position.
“Bulgaria is doing well. There is no outflow of American investment, and we even have the opportunity to position ourselves more strategically and lead a bilateral policy with the U.S.,” he commented.
He added that Bulgaria has the potential to be an attractive partner for both federal institutions and individual U.S. states, especially in sectors such as energy, mechanical engineering, electronic components, the IT industry, and artificial intelligence.
Mihaylov also reaffirmed the strong and stable presence of U.S. companies in Bulgaria.
“American business in Europe is still operating. No one is happy with what’s happening, but so far, there are no indications that companies are planning to withdraw because the conditions in the U.S. are better,” he said.
Europe’s Strategic Dilemma
Reflecting on broader Transatlantic economic relations, Mihaylov stated that Europe should have engaged U.S. investors more proactively in recent years.
“The protectionist trend didn’t begin with Trump—it was present during Biden’s term as well. The U.S. has been actively trying to attract investment. We saw declining interest in Europe due to clear signals that the region is overly regulated, offers uncompetitive wages, and faces widespread demographic challenges. These are not attractive conditions for doing business,” he explained.
China’s Role and the Illusion of Rapid Reindustrialization
Mihaylov also commented on China’s irreplaceable position in global supply chains.
“China cannot be ignored. A significant share of raw materials, goods, and components still comes from there,” he stressed.
As for Trump’s campaign promises to bring industrial jobs back to America, Mihaylov remained cautious.
“Reindustrialization of the U.S. cannot happen overnight in a country that long ago outsourced much of its production globally and relies heavily on imports. It’s simply not feasible to create new jobs that quickly,” he concluded.