In 2026, the policy changes that grabbed headlines in 2025 will exert their force on economies around the world. While deepening global fragmentation presents challenges, increasing AI adoption presents opportunities. Over 2026, the data will unveil how the global economy has shifted from these accelerating forces.
- The Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI) expects global real GDP growth to moderate to 3.1% in 2026 from an expected 3.2% in 2025; the global expansion is set to continue, underpinned by technological adaptation and flexible economies. MEI expects moderately stronger growth in the US but a deceleration in the Chinese Mainland and across Latin America with Europe continuing to reveal a bifurcated story, this time along the lines of fiscal policy.
- On the inflation front, MEI expects an easing of global inflation to 3.4% in 2026 from the expected 3.9% in 2025. The critical factor remains tariffs, with the US navigating upward price pressures while other economies will experience lower inflation due to an increase in Chinese imports, lower commodity prices and currency shifts.
- The global consumer will remain savvy, focusing on tech-enabled and value-conscious spending. MEI expects consumers to prioritize “meaningful moments” such as travel and live events while remaining price sensitive for many necessary goods.
There are risks in both directions. The global economy will need to continue to adapt supply chains and production, creating challenges for some and opportunities for others. Meanwhile, technological advancement, especially in AI, could boost productivity and growth, but the benefits are likely to be unevenly distributed. Advanced economies and sectors with high digital readiness may reap disproportionate gains, while other markets risk falling short, creating new policy challenges. In today’s rapidly evolving world, staying alert to the data to catch real-time shifts has never been more crucial, which we showcase throughout this report.